PFFl Week 13 2009

Pittsburgh Survival Football
Survivor 1: They didn't unleash hell but they did send 23 participants to hell with their loss to Oakland. Overall Green Bay is responsible for the most deaths in the contest (134) but Pittsburgh owns the title for most losses. They account for only 46 fatalities total but they lose half the time they are picked. Of the 10 times in the 13 weeks of the contest they were chosen they lost 5 times. The Steelers were the only losing team picked of the 8 chosen this week so the contest still has a significant number of survivors for the amount of weeks remaining. The Steelers loss did bring the contest under 100 at least but there still are 94 alive with just 4 weeks remaining.
Survivor 2: There were just 6 teams picked in the second contest compared to 8 in the first but like the first there was just that 1 loser, the Steelers. Eleven souls lost their lives because they believed Tomlin's promise of death and destruction to their enemies and the only reason there wasn't more casualties is because only 14 of the 58 survivors had Pittsburgh left to pick. The three that had Pittsburgh available but resisted the fire and brimstone speech have to be somewhat proud of themselves right now I would think. There are a lot less survivors remaining in the second contest than the first but with with just 4 weeks to go 47 is still a fairly decent amount.

PFFL POSTSEASON

Week 14 - Second Round Playoffs: This week the first round winners will compete against the #1 and #2 seeds in each conference. The first round playoff losers will compete in the third round of the Consolation Tournament. All Matchups are determined by rank with the highest rank always playing the lowest rank and the higher rank winning all ties. A detailed breakdown of the seedings, byes, and matchups of the postseason can be found in the Playoff Formats page.

The 12 Remaining Teams of the Playoffs Sorted by Total Points

Rank/Franchise PF PF Rk Comments

2 Knockout Kings 1743 1 Every starter but one ranked in the top 10 of their individual categories - no real depth so big drop off after starters but as long as no injuries no worries

1 MNE 1717 2 Have one monster stud in each of the 3 main categories - rest of lineup not particularly great but definitely adequate so together with the studs a great team

1 Justice 1706 3 Not complete but have enough around Chris Johnson and Moss to make them explosive as their 204 single week high demonstrates - just 1 kicker on the roster and Miami only defense so special teams a possible concern

3 Archie's 1706 4 Not deep but have enough playmakers to succeed - have cooled lately but with Chris Johnson and Andre Johnson in the lineup the potential for the monster week always there like the 197 in week 9 they put up

2 SS Stoggies 1690 5 Roster loaded with potential as a 152 postseason average would indicate but lineup not set in stone - will have to make the right lineup decisions at both RB and WR each week to maintain the 152

4 Downtowners 1688 6 RBs have been lagging but a solid QB and good WRs have been taking up the slack - the potential is there though at RB so if their backs get hot they will be tough to beat

3 TnT 1670 8 Very deep team that has at least 5 players capable of putting up a 30 spot at any time - AP cooled a bit lately but if he gets on another roll they could roll

2 TD's 1659 9 Solid at RB, adequate at QB but WR a crap shoot each week - also now must deal with Vick stealing points from McNabb

1 Reno 1631 10 Have enough good players to contend but need to stay healthy - a slow start can be attributed to an early Gore injury and now DeAngelo Williams iffy

7 Syndicate 1603 11 RB staff leaves a lot to be desired but they still made it to the second round of the playoffs because their QB and WRs are very desirable - Manning and Wayne in particular

5 Irish Talbots 1571 14 Have some play makers but have some definite holes also - got to this point with some mediocre scores the last 4 weeks so will need Hasselbeck to step up and DeAngelo Williams on the field if they want to get to the next point

4 Pretty Kitty Central 1512 17 Roster filled with mostly middle of the road talent creating multiple lineup decisions each week resulting in one of the worst efficiency ratings in the league - only team in the playoffs under the league average in points

Playoff Average 1658

League Average 1547

PFFL SECOND ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

EAST
Rank/Team	VP	W-L-T	Pts	Comments
#7 Syndicate vs. #1 Justice	21	5-6-0	1603	A sub-par 12-point game from AP and Simms-Walker's 2-point performance allowed the Syndicate to escape a very good IC Lightning team 139-136. Not that they didn't earn it putting up the second best score in the East but if either of those 2 players performed anywhere near their average, the Syndicate's opportunity for 3 straight championship game appearances wouldn't exist right now; and yes the Lightning's 136 was 3rd for the week making it an even tougher pill to swallow for them. But it doesn't get any easier as they go from the 3rd ranked team in conference points to the first in Justice. Getting right into it we'll give the QB edge to the Syndicate but since Peyton is averaging just 2 more points a week than Rivers we'll also call it slight. Nothing slight about the RB edge though as Chris Johnson has almost as many points as the Syndicate's top three RBs combined. Add in Addai who alone has almost twice as many points as the Syndicate's best back and you may have the biggest edge at RB ever in a playoff game. The Syndicate however didn't get here with their RBs but with their WRs led by Reggie Wayne. But before we relinquish the WR edge right off Justice has a few playmakers at the position also led by a stud of their own, Moss. All in all the Syndicate still gets the edge at WR but we can't justify making it more than slight. Two slights for the Syndicate against one definitive gives the nod to Justice for sure but the Syndicate has been doing just fine with what they have as a 137 average the last two weeks bear out; and oh by the way, they would have beaten Justice in both those weeks. The site however is calling Justice the favorite and with almost 100 more points scored I have to agree.
#7 Syndicate vs. #1 Justice	29	8-3-0	1706
#4 Downtowners vs. #2 TD's	25	6-5-0	1688	The Downtowners drew the right straw matching them up with a T Bones team missing their #1 pick Michael Turner instead of the Syndicate or the Lightning who both outscored them this week. Even though the T Bones struggled a bit with just 111 points, the Downtowners get the credit for taking advantage with an efficient 95.7 coaching effort that produced 135 points and a first round win. Inspecting the rosters we see just a slight QB edge might be given to the Downtowners with Warner over McNabb but the presence of Vick in the red zone lately may make that a little more pronounced. The TD's however more than make up for it at RB. Besides having the clear better talent at the position the matchups favor the TD's this week so advantage here significant. The Downtowners counter with the better WRs however. The TD's aren't that bad here and actually have some nice potential this week looking at the schedule but on paper anyway the Downtowners win the category. The Downtowners actually have more total points but mainly because the TD's threw up a clunker of 102 last week; illustrating once again the value of the byes. The site has made the Downtowners the favorite but because Jones-Drew is at home and Ray Rice at home against DETROIT, I give the nod to the TD's based on matchups.
#4 Downtowners vs. #2 TD's	29	7-4-0	1659

Week 14 East CT Schedule

#9 Aggravators vs. #3 IC Lightning #6 Commish East vs. #5 T Bones

CENTRAL

Rank/Team VP W-L-T
Pts

Comments

#4 Pretty Kitty Central

vs.

#1 Reno
19 5-6-0 1383 Cleantown had the opportunity to pull it out on Monday night with Greg Jennings but his 13 could only get them to within 8, leaving them with a 117-109 playoff loss that let Pretty Kitty off the hook for lineup decisions that produced just a 68.4 efficiency rating. They'll have to be much more efficient this week as they now draw the #1 ranked team in the Central.

Observing both rosters if I had a choice I would chose Favre over Hasselbeck so QB goes to Reno. Under normal circumstances it would be close but Pretty Kitty gets a slight advantage at RB because of Jones-Drew's big week capability; but if DeAngelo Williams doesn't play for Reno, that advantage becomes more significant. Reno gets the nod at WR for two reasons: 1. their starters are solid and basically set each week while Pretty Kitty has to perform a juggling act amongst mostly middle of the road guys; 2. they have the most targeted WR in the game, Wes Welker. The site has made Reno a significant favorite of 22 points. Considering Reno has scored about 120 more points and Pretty Kitty's point total is actually below the league average, I have to somewhat agree. But if DeAngelo Williams doesn't play we go from significant favorite to just favorite.

27 7-4-0 1531

#3 TnT

vs.

#2 SS Stoggies
27 7-4-0 1670 TnT held off a stubborn Nasty Aggravators team for a 139-126 first round playoff victory. It wasn't easy as it took a weekly second place effort because the Aggravators actual came in third for the week; but their superior lineup came through in the end. The Aggravators actually had a big lead of 42 at one time and the upset looked like it might materialize. Little Tommy was second guessing himself for taking out Garcon who put up 19 earlier in the day for Boldin. After Boldin finished with 28 the head swelled back up and the victory was secured.

The Stoggies lead the conference and have 20 more points but that could be attributed to the bye week TnT played without a QB; so basically they are dead even there. Rothlesberger has been solid for fantasy but Brees gives the QB edge to the Stoggies. TnT appears to have the better RB corp led by AP but the Stoggies Ray Rice playing against Detroit this week keeps that category close. Where there is more separation is at the WR position; that clearly goes on TnT's side of the board. The site has the Stoggies a slight favorite and I do expect a close game with the results of Ray Rice's matchup against Detroit having a significant impact. If Rice doesn't take advantage and go off, TnT could win without having to put up a big number.

29 7-4-0 1690

Week 14 Central CT Schedule

#11 Weekend Warriors vs. #6 Cleantown #8 Aggravators vs. #7 JR's Boys

WEST

Rank/Team VP W-L-T
Pts

Comments

#5 Irish Talbots

vs.

#1 MNE 25 5-5-1 1571 The Talbots game against French River came down to Monday night but not really. The Talbots had a 14 point lead with Grant left to the River's GB DEF. Grant did very little putting up just 4 points but even a zero would have given them the win as they advance with a 122-115 win. I hate when this happens to anyone but the River will question leaving Calvin Johnson and his 24 points on the bench for a long time. The experts say always start your studs and if the River would have heeded that advice, they would be playing MNE this week instead of the Talbots.

The Rivers lineup decision has given the Talbots a chance to play in the conference championship but first they must get through the #1 ranked team in the conference, MNE. Right out of the gate they will have to deal with one of the top QBs in Drew Brees. While Hasselbeck isn't a bust, he hasn't had that big week in a long time so MNE strikes the first blow with the QB nod. MNE has a homerun hitter in Jones-Drew and the Talbots slugger DeAngelo Williams might be on the bench this week. Neither have particularly good matchups but if Williams sits the check mark at RB goes in the MNE column. Both have 1 stud at WR and no clear difference with the rest so we'll wash the WRs. The fact that MNE has almost 150 more points would indicate they are the favorite and the site certainly sees it that way saying they will win by 7. If Williams doesn't play you would think even more than 7 but if Jones-Drew whiffs like he did last week with just 9 points, it's any ones game.

32 8-3-0 1717

#3 Archie's

vs.

#2 Knockout Kings 28 6-5-0 1706 Archie's carried a 3 point lead over J&J into Monday night but had a 2 player to 1 advantage remaining. If Driver and Clayton kept ahead of J&J's Mason they were in. Turns out Driver and Clayton could have taken the night off because Mason put up just 3 and Archie's had the tie breaker with the higher rank. The final score ended up a decisive 129-115 victory setting up a #2 vs. #3 showdown with the Kings.

The Kings may carry the 2nd rank but they are the #1 team in points in the entire league so Archie's gets no bargain here. Then again at just 37 points behind Archie's is no slouch either. Getting into the roster analysis the QB's are comparable with Warner vs. Schaub. You might think the Kings AP and Rice would edge out Chris Johnson and Addai but with Favre seemingly emerging as a throw first QB even falling back into his old habit of throwing from the 1 yard line, maybe not. Add in Johnson's matchup against the Rams and his propensity to run 70 and 80 yard TDs, we might swing it the other way if Rice didn't have a matchup against Detroit. The WR's do seem to favor the Kings but Andre Johnson for Archie's keeps it slight. The Kings do have the more complete team but it's hard to make any team with Chris Johnson and his ability to have 40 plus weeks at anytime an underdog.

31 7-3-1 1743

Week 14 West CT Schedule

#8 Rounder17 vs. #4 French River #7 Brookline vs. #6 J&J